Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adam FrazierBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCann grounded out to third, Westburg scored.4–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 8Rizzo grounded into fielder's choice to first, Kiner-Falefa scored, Trevino out at second.3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–7
- 7Bader doubled to right, Torres scored and Stanton scored, LeMahieu to third.3–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Trevino homered to right (346 feet).3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Stanton singled to center, Torres scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 33–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Frazier homered to right center (378 feet), Westburg scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Hicks homered to right center (372 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Kiner-Falefa hit sacrifice fly to right, Bauers scored, Bader to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Torres homered to left center (436 feet), Rizzo scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Fair odds
- NYY -111
- BAL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | 0 | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +36 Elo | NYY 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3023–16 | Road vs home | 26–198th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 3–4 NYY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.