Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting1-4
- Alec MarshPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 8Solano doubled to right, Buxton scored.0–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 7Jeffers homered to center (426 feet).0–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Kirilloff singled to left, Jeffers scored, Correa scored on throwing error by left fielder Melendez, Kirilloff to third.0–3
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Julien homered to right (378 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 63%
- Fair odds
- MIN -134
- KC +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −5 | KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +91 Elo | MIN 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 30 |
| 30th of 3012–30 | Road vs home | 25–199th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–8 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.