Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting4-7, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Billy McKinneyBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching2.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9McKinney reached on infield single to first, Cabrera scored.14–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play14–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 314–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 214–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging14–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 114–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking14–0
- 8Mullins grounded into fielder's choice to first, McCann scored, O'Hearn out at second, Mateo to third.14–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play14–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 113–0
- 4O'Hearn hit sacrifice fly to left, Rutschman scored.13–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play13–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging12–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 312–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging12–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 212–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 112–0
- 4Henderson homered to right center (416 feet), Westburg scored and Urías scored.12–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 29–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 19–0
- 4Urías singled to right, Cowser scored, Westburg to second.9–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 28–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 3O'Hearn singled to right, Henderson scored and Rutschman scored, Santander to third.8–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 3Rutschman reached on infield single to shortstop, Frazier scored, Henderson to second.6–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 3Henderson singled to right, Westburg scored, Frazier to third.5–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Fair odds
- NYY -107
- BAL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −13 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Severino: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +6 Elo | BAL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 27–209th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 4–5 NYY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.