Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Yankees- Josh DonaldsonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9O'Hearn homered to right (339 feet), Rutschman scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Volpe homered to right (343 feet).4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Frazier grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Westburg scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Westburg tripled to center, Hicks scored and Cowser scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Cowser singled to right, Mullins scored, Hicks to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 5Higashioka singled to right, Volpe scored, Higashioka out stretching at second.0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Donaldson homered to right center (402 feet).0–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Fair odds
- NYY -111
- BAL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +2 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +36 Elo | NYY 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3023–17 | Road vs home | 27–197th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 3–5 NYY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.