Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Adam DuvallBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris MurphyPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yoshida homered to left (353 feet).3–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Arroyo doubled to right, Yoshida scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 33–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 6Duvall homered to left center (402 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 33–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Rooker homered to left (443 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Noda walked, Peterson scored, Kemp to second, Wade to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 42–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Duvall hit sacrifice fly to right, Refsnyder scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Noda scored on throwing error by catcher Alfaro.1–0
- 1Noda scored on throwing error by catcher Alfaro.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 64%
- Fair odds
- BOS -138
- OAK +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.9 – 5.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −4 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Tayler Scott (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +98 Elo | BOS 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3013–34 | Road vs home | 25–2216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–2 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.