Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lucas ErcegPitching2.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bleday reached on infield single to first, Noda scored, A. Díaz to second.3–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–10
- 6Arroyo doubled to left, Casas scored.2–10
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–9
- 6Rooker homered to left center (375 feet).2–9
- 6Pitch 11 : Ball In Play2–9
- 6Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 6Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball 21–9
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 11–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 5Yoshida singled to center, Duran scored.1–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 5Duran hit a ground rule double, Arroyo scored.1–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 4Devers doubled to left, Yoshida scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 3Wong hit sacrifice fly to left, Casas scored.1–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 3Piña homered to left center (372 feet).1–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 64%
- Fair odds
- BOS -137
- OAK +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.9 – 5.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +4 | OAK: Austin Pruitt: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +97 Elo | BOS 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 3013–33 | Road vs home | 24–2218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.