Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Santander homered to right (392 feet).15–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play15–2
- 6Julien homered to left center (409 feet).14–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play14–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 214–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking14–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 114–1
- 6Henderson singled to center, Hicks scored, Urías to second.14–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play14–1
- 6Urías singled to left, Mullins scored, Hicks to second.13–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul12–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging12–1
- 6Mullins doubled to center, Cowser scored.12–1
- 6Pitch 14 : Ball In Play12–1
- 6Pitch 13 : Ball 311–1
- 6Pitch 12 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 6Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 6Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 6Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 211–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 111–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking11–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–1
- 6Santander homered to right center (385 feet).11–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 110–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–1
- 6Rutschman homered to right center (461 feet), Henderson scored.10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 5Hicks homered to right (409 feet), Cowser scored and Hays scored.8–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Fair odds
- MIN -105
- BAL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +6 | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +25 Elo | MIN 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.46th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3027–17 | Road vs home | 26–219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 3–2 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.