Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adam FrazierBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Twins- Donovan SolanoBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Solano doubled to center, Buxton scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 2Santander singled to right, Frazier scored, Henderson to third.6–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 2Henderson singled to left, Urías scored, Frazier to second.5–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 2Frazier singled to left, Cowser scored and Hicks scored, Urías to second.4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Urías walked, Hays scored, Cowser to second, Hicks to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 42–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Cowser walked, O'Hearn scored, Hicks to second, Hays to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 41–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Julien scored on Wells wild pitch.0–1
- 1Julien scored on Wells wild pitch.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +1 | BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +6 Elo | MIN 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–17 | Road vs home | 26–208th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 2–2 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.