Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Alex KirilloffBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Jordan DiazBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Gelof doubled to first, Langeliers scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 7Kirilloff doubled to left, Julien scored, Kepler scored and Vázquez scored, Kirilloff to third.5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Kirilloff homered to left center (381 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Vázquez homered to left center (395 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4A. Díaz doubled to left, Bleday scored, Soderstrom to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4J. Diaz hit sacrifice fly to left, Gelof scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2J. Diaz homered to left (381 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 57%
- Fair odds
- MIN -110
- OAK +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.7 – 4.5 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +6 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +48 Elo | MIN 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 6.330th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.730th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3021–24 | Road vs home | 12–3430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–0 OAK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.