Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Kyle FarmerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.2 IP, 7 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hogan HarrisPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jeffers sacrificed to pitcher, Castro scored.10–7
- 8Buxton walked, Jeffers scored, Solano to second, Correa to third.9–7
- 8Pitch 10 : Ball 49–7
- 8Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball 38–7
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 28–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–7
- 7Farmer homered to left center (405 feet).8–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging7–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 37–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 6Allen hit sacrifice fly to center, Gelof scored, Peterson to third.7–7
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking7–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 37–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 27–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 5Allen scored on P. López wild pitch, Kemp to second on wild pitch by P. López.7–6
- 5Allen scored on P. López wild pitch, Kemp to second on wild pitch by P. López.7–6
- 5Kemp singled to right, Peterson scored, Allen to third.7–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 5Castro stole home, Jeffers stole second.7–4
- 5Castro stole home, Jeffers stole second.7–4
- 4Brown homered to right (395 feet), Bleday scored.6–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 16–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 4Noda homered to right center (393 feet).6–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Fair odds
- MIN -112
- OAK +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.4 – 4.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −11 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OAK: Hogan Harris: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +73 Elo | MIN 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 6.330th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.730th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3020–24 | Road vs home | 12–3330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 OAK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.