Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-3
- George KirbyPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Carpenter homered to right center (431 feet), Greene scored and Torkelson scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Torkelson singled to center, Haase scored, Greene to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Greene singled to left, McKinstry scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Carpenter homered to left (356 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +8 | DET: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +59 Elo | SEA 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3020–25 | Road vs home | 24–2114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 2–2 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.