Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-4
- Reese OlsonPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Raleigh homered to right center (432 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Kelenic doubled to center, Crawford scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Fair odds
- SEA -115
- DET +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −26 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 1.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +28 Elo | SEA 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 3021–25 | Road vs home | 24–2216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 3–2 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.