Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Max KeplerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kepler homered to right (362 feet), Julien scored and Solano scored.6–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 7Suárez homered to left (396 feet), Kelenic scored.3–7
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 6Ford walked, Raleigh scored on Gray wild pitch.3–5
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball 43–5
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 33–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Gallo homered to center (422 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Kelenic singled to left, Caballero scored and Ford scored, Rodríguez to second.2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Rodríguez walked, France scored, Caballero to second, Ford to third.2–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 42–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Caballero singled to left, Hernández scored, Ford to second, France to third.2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Fair odds
- SEA -113
- MIN +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.9 – 4.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +16 | MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +42 Elo | SEA 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 17th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 25–2214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.