San Diego Padres at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting3-4
- Blake SnellPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kirk homered to left (370 feet), Espinal scored.0–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 7Guerrero Jr. homered to right (370 feet).0–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Luplow singled to center, Espinal scored, Kirk to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Fair odds
- TOR -116
- SD +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | 0 | SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +15 Elo | TOR 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3021–27 | Road vs home | 26–208th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 2–0 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.