Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting2-4
- Pablo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Raleigh scored on Sands wild pitch, Caballero to second on wild pitch by Sands, France to third on wild pitch by Sands.0–5
- 8Raleigh scored on Sands wild pitch, Caballero to second on wild pitch by Sands, France to third on wild pitch by Sands.0–5
- 8Ford homered to right (413 feet), Suárez scored.0–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Hernández homered to center (405 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Hernández singled to left, Crawford scored, Suárez to second, Rodríguez to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Fair odds
- SEA -110
- MIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +5 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +24 Elo | SEA 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 14th of 3024–25 | Road vs home | 26–2417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.