Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kirilloff homered to left (379 feet), Taylor scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 8Kepler scored, Castro to third on passed ball by Murphy.4–3
- 8Kepler scored, Castro to third on passed ball by Murphy.4–3
- 7Suárez homered to left center (424 feet), Kelenic scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Murphy homered to center (423 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Kepler homered to center (411 feet).3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Julien homered to right center (415 feet).2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Jeffers singled to center, Wallner scored, Farmer to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Fair odds
- SEA -112
- MIN +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +6 | MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +32 Elo | SEA 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 14th of 3023–25 | Road vs home | 26–2316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.