Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Danny JansenBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hernández singled to right, Caballero scored, Rodríguez to third.2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8France doubled to left, Murphy scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Ford singled to left, France scored, Pollock to third.2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 7Varsho scored on Berroa wild pitch.2–0
- 7Varsho scored on Berroa wild pitch.2–0
- 5Jansen homered to left (382 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −16 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +8 Elo | TOR 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 3027–23 | Road vs home | 27–2417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.