Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Matt ChapmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael GrovePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Bichette walked, Merrifield scored, Jansen to second, Varsho to third.6–3
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball 46–3
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 35–3
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 11Varsho doubled to right, Biggio scored and Chapman scored, Merrifield to third.5–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Muncy homered to right center (435 feet).3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 8Chapman homered to right center (388 feet).3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Espinal scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Kiermaier singled to left, Kirk scored, Espinal to second.1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Heyward homered to center (396 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Muncy singled to center, Betts scored, Freeman to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Fair odds
- LAD -115
- TOR +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.9 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +5 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Michael Grove: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +33 Elo | LAD 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3028–25 | Road vs home | 29–162nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.