Los Angeles Dodgers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Julio UriasPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 5Henderson homered to center (431 feet).5–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 5Muncy homered to center (431 feet), Freeman scored.5–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 33–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 4Hays hit sacrifice fly to center, Mateo scored.3–7
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–7
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 33–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 4Outman homered to left center (414 feet).3–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 3Henderson scored, Urías to third on wild pitch by Urías.2–6
- 3Henderson scored on Urías wild pitch, Urías to third on wild pitch by Urías.2–6
- 3Urías doubled to left, Westburg scored, Henderson to third.2–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 1Urías doubled to right, Henderson scored and Hicks scored.2–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 1Westburg singled to right, Mountcastle scored, Hicks to second.2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Hicks singled to center, Santander scored, Mountcastle to second.2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 50%
- Fair odds
- BAL -110
- LAD +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.1 – 5.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | 0 | LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +1 Elo | LAD 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 10th of 3026–23 | Road vs home | 29–207th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 2–0 BAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.