Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Dane MyersBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- George SorianoPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching7.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Myers doubled to left, Berti scored.4–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 9Berti singled to center, Segura scored.3–5
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 32–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 9Segura doubled to center, Cooper scored and Gurriel scored.2–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 4Henderson hit sacrifice fly to right, Cowser scored, Frazier to third.0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4McCann grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Urías scored on fielding error by shortstop Wendle, Frazier to second, Cowser to third.0–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 1Santander homered to center (428 feet), Rutschman scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Rutschman hit a ground rule double, Henderson scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +18 | MIA: Steven Okert (no track record yet) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +67 Elo | BAL 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 15th of 3023–23 | Road vs home | 28–186th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–2 BAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.