Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Santander singled to right, Hays scored, Rutschman to third.5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Henderson homered to right (371 feet).5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Santander singled to center, Rutschman scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 4De La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to center, Myers scored, Arraez to third.5–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 2Mateo tripled to center, Hicks scored and Cowser scored.4–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 2Mullins singled to center, Mountcastle scored, Hicks to second.4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Arraez singled to right, Wendle scored, Myers to third.4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Myers grounded into fielder's choice to second, Segura scored, Wendle third.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Wendle singled to left, Gurriel scored, Segura to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Segura reached on infield single to shortstop, Sánchez scored, Gurriel to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −11 | MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +24 Elo | BAL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 3023–22 | Road vs home | 27–186th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–1 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.