Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Adam FrazierBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Frazier homered to right center (396 feet), Hays scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 32–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 8Soler homered to left (406 feet).2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Frazier homered to center (413 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Mullins homered to right center (382 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3De La Cruz singled to left, Wendle scored, Arraez to second, Stallings to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Frazier singled to left, Mullins scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Fair odds
- BAL -115
- MIA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −5 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +38 Elo | BAL 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.55th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3023–21 | Road vs home | 26–186th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.