Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Julio UriasPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Outman scored, Freeman out at second, Betts to third.6–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 8Martinez homered to right center (405 feet).5–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 6Rojas singled to right, Heyward scored, Rojas thrown out at second, Outman to third.4–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Freeman doubled to right, Outman scored and Rojas scored, Betts to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Betts singled to left, Heyward scored, Rojas to second, Outman to third.1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Fair odds
- NYM -101
- LAD +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYM: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +13 Elo | LAD 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 15th of 3022–22 | Road vs home | 20–1920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 1–2 NYM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.