Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith homered to left center (398 feet), Freeman scored.4–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–11
- 8Freeman grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Rojas scored on throwing error by shortstop Velazquez, Betts out at second.4–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 8Rojas doubled to left, Outman scored.4–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 7Moustakas homered to right (408 feet).4–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 6Betts doubled to left, Rojas scored and Outman scored.3–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Betts homered to left (349 feet).3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 4Moniak homered to right (370 feet), Ohtani scored and Ward scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Martinez doubled to right, Smith scored, Muncy to third.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Betts homered to center (403 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Martinez homered to left (376 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Freeman homered to center (395 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Fair odds
- LAD -116
- LAA +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.0 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −8 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +29 Elo | LAD 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 17th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 27–163rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 0–2 LAD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.