Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael GrovePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani hit sacrifice fly to left, Escobar scored.5–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–10
- 7Peralta homered to right (403 feet).4–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–9
- 7Ohtani homered to center (433 feet), Velazquez scored.4–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–9
- 6Martinez homered to center (386 feet).2–9
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–9
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 22–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 6Moustakas singled to left, Fletcher scored.2–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 6Fletcher hit a ground rule double, Moniak scored.1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 4Muncy singled to right, Smith scored, Martinez to third.0–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 4Freeman homered to left center (390 feet).0–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 2Smith singled to left, Betts and Freeman scored, Smith safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Rengifo.0–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Freeman doubled to left, Vargas scored and Outman scored, Betts to third.0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Muncy homered to center (410 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Fair odds
- LAD -118
- LAA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.0 – 5.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −1 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Alex Vesia (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +43 Elo | LAD 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 3022–25 | Road vs home | 28–163rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 0–3 LAD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.