Los Angeles Dodgers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Chris TaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Taylor homered to center (416 feet), Smith scored, Muncy scored and Heyward scored.6–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 6Smith singled to left, Freeman scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 5Rutschman homered to right (363 feet).1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Martinez singled to left, Freeman scored, Smith to second.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Henderson tripled to right, Urías scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Frazier grounded out to shortstop, Cowser scored, Urías to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Mountcastle doubled to left, Santander scored, O'Hearn to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 50%
- Fair odds
- BAL -112
- LAD +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.8 – 5.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −20 | LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 1.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +3 Elo | BAL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 13th of 3024–23 | Road vs home | 29–186th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.