Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peralta singled to left, Muncy scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 34–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 9Martinez singled to center, Smith scored, Martinez out stretching at second, Muncy to third.4–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 9Betts scored on error, Muncy safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Baty.3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 8Peralta grounded into fielder's choice to first, Muncy scored, Martinez out at second.2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Nimmo homered to center (445 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Betts homered to right (344 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Fair odds
- NYM -102
- LAD +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.6 – 4.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +10 | LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +2 Elo | LAD 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.518th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 12th of 3023–22 | Road vs home | 20–2019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 2–2 NYM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.