Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Mets- Luis GuillormeBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Guillorme doubled to right, Baty scored.1–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul1–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–1
- 8Betts singled to left, Outman scored, Rojas to second.1–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Nimmo grounded out to pitcher, Marte scored, Narváez to second, Canha to third.0–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Fair odds
- LAD -100
- NYM +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +4 | LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYM: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +18 Elo | LAD 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3024–22 | Road vs home | 20–2121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 3–2 NYM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.