Los Angeles Dodgers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Jason HeywardBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael GrovePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Aaron HicksBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hicks singled to right, Santander scored, O'Hearn to second.10–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–2
- 8O'Hearn singled to right, Henderson scored, Santander to third.10–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–1
- 8Smith reached on infield single to shortstop, Freeman scored on throwing error by shortstop Henderson, Smith to second.10–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–1
- 7Taylor walked, Smith scored, Martinez to second, Muncy to third.9–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 49–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 38–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 7Martinez singled to right, Freeman scored, Muncy to second, Smith to third.8–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Muncy grounded into fielder's choice to first, Betts scored, Smith to second, Freeman to third.7–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 7Rojas scored on throwing error by catcher Rutschman, Outman stole third.6–1
- 7Rojas scored on throwing error by catcher Rutschman, Outman stole third.6–1
- 2Hicks doubled to center, O'Hearn scored on error, Hicks safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Outman.5–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Smith singled to left, Outman scored, Freeman to second.5–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Freeman singled to center, Rojas scored, Outman to second.4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Heyward homered to center (414 feet), Martinez scored and Peralta scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Fair odds
- BAL -113
- LAD +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 5.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +8 | LAD: Michael Grove: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +18 Elo | BAL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.55th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 12th of 3025–23 | Road vs home | 29–197th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 1–0 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.