Los Angeles Dodgers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Betts doubled to center, Rojas scored and Muncy scored.11–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 8Martinez singled to center, Smith scored.9–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–5
- 8Smith doubled to center, Betts scored and Rojas scored.8–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Muncy grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Freeman scored, Martinez out at second, Smith to third.6–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 7Martinez walked, Betts scored, Smith to second, Freeman to third.5–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 45–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 34–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6Seager homered to right center (434 feet).4–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Freeman homered to center (421 feet).4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Jankowski hit sacrifice fly to left, García scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Heim hit sacrifice fly to right, Lowe scored, García to third.3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Martinez singled to center, Freeman scored, Martinez out stretching at second.3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Freeman doubled to left, Hernández scored and Rojas scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Lowe homered to left (353 feet), Seager scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Fair odds
- TEX -113
- LAD +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.1 – 5.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −4 | LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +23 Elo | TEX 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 10th of 3026–24 | Road vs home | 33–182nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.