Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Smith scored on Fairbanks wild pitch.2–3
- 9J. Smith scored on Fairbanks wild pitch.2–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Duran homered to right center (418 feet), Grossman scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2J. Lowe homered to center (399 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Arozarena hit sacrifice fly to center, Díaz scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 50%
- Fair odds
- TEX -107
- TB +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.2 – 5.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +1 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +1 Elo | TEX 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.91st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 8th of 3025–21 | Road vs home | 30–184th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 2–1 TEX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.