Texas Rangers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Grant AndersonPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Jeimer CandelarioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Jung homered to left (368 feet).3–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 4Jung homered to right center (401 feet), García scored.2–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–8
- 3García tripled to right, García scored on throwing error by second baseman Semien.0–8
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–8
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 2Meneses doubled to left, Thomas scored.0–7
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–7
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 2Call homered to center (404 feet), García scored.0–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1Meneses homered to left (368 feet).0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Candelario homered to center (399 feet), Abrams scored and Thomas scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Fair odds
- TEX -108
- WSH +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.0 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −8 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +59 Elo | TEX 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–19 | Road vs home | 13–3229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.