Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting3-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting2-4
- Josiah GrayPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benson grounded out to first, Fraley scored, Stephenson to second, Steer to third.9–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 8Fraley singled to left, De La Cruz scored.8–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 7Meneses grounded out to shortstop, García scored, Candelario to third.7–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 7McLain reached on infield single to third, Votto scored, Friedl to second, Stephenson to third.7–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 7Fraley scored on a balk, Votto to second on a balk.6–1
- 7Fraley scored on a balk, Votto to second on a balk.6–1
- 5De La Cruz homered to right center (455 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Friedl singled to right, Stephenson scored, Benson to third.4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Benson doubled to right, Stephenson scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Stephenson doubled to left, Steer scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Votto homered to right center (382 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Fair odds
- WSH -102
- CIN +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.3 – 5.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +18 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +18 Elo | WSH 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 6th of 3024–18 | Road vs home | 13–2928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.