Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Joey VottoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Jeimer CandelarioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ruiz singled to right, Candelario scored, Smith to second.3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 4Candelario homered to center (414 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Votto homered to left center (394 feet), De La Cruz scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Stephenson singled to left, Fraley scored, Steer to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 49%
- Fair odds
- WSH -101
- CIN +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.3 – 5.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −15 | CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +8 Elo | CIN 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3022–18 | Road vs home | 13–2728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.