Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting3-6, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Brett KennedyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8De La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to center, McLain scored.8–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 6Dickerson singled to right, Smith scored, Meneses to third.7–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 6Meneses singled to left, Candelario scored, Smith to third.7–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 6India homered to center (400 feet).7–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 5Hill singled to left, Abrams scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 4India homered to center (421 feet).6–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 3Thomas hit sacrifice fly to center, Abrams scored.5–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3Senzel homered to left (396 feet), De La Cruz scored and Steer scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike 15–0
- 1Steer singled to shortstop, India scored, Steer to second, De La Cruz to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1India singled to right, McLain scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Fair odds
- CIN -101
- WSH +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.2 – 5.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −6 | CIN: Brett Kennedy (no track record yet) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +20 Elo | CIN 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 13–2828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.