Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Nick SenzelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Mason ThompsonPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 10Thomas reached on infield single to shortstop, Call scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 10Senzel homered to left center (402 feet), Stephenson scored.5–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Votto singled to right, Benson scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 7Call homered to left center (428 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 6De La Cruz doubled to left, Friedl scored, McLain thrown out at home.2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 5Thomas singled to left, Abrams scored and Call scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Newman singled to left, Benson scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Fair odds
- CIN -103
- WSH +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.2 – 5.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −16 | CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +23 Elo | CIN 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 4th of 3025–18 | Road vs home | 13–3028th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 3–0 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.