Texas Rangers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran hit sacrifice fly to right, Jankowski scored.7–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 7García homered to left (395 feet).6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 7Seager homered to right center (423 feet).5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Meneses homered to left center (428 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Jung singled to center, Lowe scored and García scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 1Meneses homered to left (379 feet).2–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Heim singled to right, Seager scored, Jung to second.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1García grounded out to second, Semien scored, Seager to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Fair odds
- TEX -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.0 – 4.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −30 | +1 | TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 1.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +21 Elo | TEX 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–19 | Road vs home | 13–3128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.