Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Royals- Nick PrattoBatting2-3
- Cole RagansPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Mejía scored.4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Raley singled to right, Ramírez scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 7J. Lowe tripled to center, Margot scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Blanco grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Waters scored, Pratto out at second.1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Garcia hit sacrifice fly to right, Pratto scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Arozarena singled to left, Franco scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 64%
- Fair odds
- TB -122
- KC +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.8 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +4 | TB: Shawn Armstrong: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TB +96 Elo | TB 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–20 | Road vs home | 13–3229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 3–2 KC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.