Atlanta Braves at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Acuña Jr. singled to center, Harris II scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 9Harris II grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Arcia scored on error, Harris II to second.5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 8Raley grounded out to third, Franco scored on throwing error by first baseman Olson.4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Murphy homered to left (406 feet), Albies scored and Olson scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Olson singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored, Albies to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 48%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.7 – 4.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −17 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +13 Elo | ATL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 1st of 3029–13 | Road vs home | 34–141st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.