Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Guardians- Amed RosarioBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rosario singled to left, Straw scored and Kwan scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Harris II homered to left (387 feet).4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Ozuna homered to right (375 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Albies singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored, Albies thrown out at second.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Harris II homered to right center (424 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Fair odds
- ATL -106
- CLE +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −3 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +56 Elo | ATL 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3026–12 | Road vs home | 20–1918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.