Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Brennan homered to right center (406 feet).1–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 20–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–10
- 7Mancini hit sacrifice fly to right, Swanson scored.0–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 6Morel homered to center (420 feet), Hoerner scored.0–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 6Madrigal homered to left center (390 feet).0–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 30–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 4Morel hit sacrifice fly to left, Tauchman scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 4Tauchman singled to center, Young scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Young tripled to right, Bellinger scored and Gomes scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Hoerner singled to center, Madrigal scored and Young scored, Tauchman to second.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Fair odds
- CHC -112
- CLE +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.2 – 4.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +10 | CLE: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +40 Elo | CHC 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 20–2020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.