Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Amed RosarioBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting3-4
- Marcus StromanPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Straw singled to center, Giménez scored and Brennan scored on fielding error by center fielder Bellinger, Straw to third.6–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 6Brennan singled to right, J. Naylor scored, Giménez to third.4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 6Giménez singled to right, Ramírez scored, J. Naylor to third.3–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Rosario singled to center, Bo Naylor scored and Kwan scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Fair odds
- CHC -112
- CLE +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +11 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +35 Elo | CHC 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 18th of 3019–23 | Road vs home | 21–2019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 CHC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.