Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Andres GimenezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10J. Naylor singled to center, Giménez scored and Rosario scored.8–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking8–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 28–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 9Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to left, Hoerner scored.6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 9Morel singled to center, Mancini scored and Tauchman scored, Hoerner to third.6–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 36–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 16–5
- 9Mancini singled to right, Young scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 36–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 8Morel homered to left center (418 feet).6–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 5Tauchman grounded out to second, Gomes scored, Mancini to second.6–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 5Bell grounded out to second, Rosario scored, J. Naylor to second.6–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 49%
- Fair odds
- CHC -107
- CLE +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.4 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −20 | CLE: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +8 Elo | CLE 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 18th of 3020–23 | Road vs home | 21–2120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–1 CHC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.