Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-5
- Cal QuantrillPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rosario grounded out to first, Kwan scored.8–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 38–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 28–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 9Harris II grounded into fielder's choice to second, Murphy scored, Arcia out at second, Pillar to third.8–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 9Olson homered to right (428 feet).7–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 7Riley homered to right (357 feet).6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 3Murphy homered to left (387 feet).5–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Rosario doubled to right, Murphy scored and Olson scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Murphy singled to left, Riley scored, Olson to second.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Olson singled to right, Albies scored, Riley to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Fair odds
- ATL -105
- CLE +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.7 – 4.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −17 | ATL: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +42 Elo | ATL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.121st of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 1st of 3027–13 | Road vs home | 21–2019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.