Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Kolby AllardPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Amed RosarioBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Fry singled to left, Rosario scored, Giménez to third.5–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 9Albies homered to right (373 feet).5–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 7Rosario singled to right, Kwan scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike 14–4
- 7Kwan singled to right, Freeman scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Rosario homered to left center (394 feet).4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Rosario doubled to left, Olson scored, d'Arnaud to third.4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5d'Arnaud singled to left, Riley scored, Olson to second.3–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Albies homered to right (369 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Rosario doubled to center, Kwan scored and Freeman scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Fair odds
- ATL -106
- CLE +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | ATL: Kolby Allard: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +48 Elo | ATL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 1st of 3027–12 | Road vs home | 20–2020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.