Atlanta Braves at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rays- Wander FrancoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 4Murphy homered to right center (386 feet), Olson scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Franco homered to right center (391 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 49%
- Fair odds
- TB -106
- ATL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.9 – 5.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −10 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +6 Elo | ATL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | +1.73rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 1st of 3028–13 | Road vs home | 34–131st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.