Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jose SiriBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Siri homered to left center (410 feet).6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 8J. Lowe hit sacrifice fly to left, Arozarena scored, Raley to second.5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 8Raley singled to right, B. Lowe scored and Franco scored, Arozarena to third.4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Witt Jr. homered to center (424 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Mejía homered to right (374 feet).2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Siri homered to left (391 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 63%
- Fair odds
- TB -121
- KC +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.9 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −8 | TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +96 Elo | TB 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 9th of 3023–20 | Road vs home | 13–3129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 2–2 KC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.