Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Josh BellBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 4Bell homered to left (404 feet), J. Naylor scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1J. Naylor singled to center, Rosario scored, Ramírez to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 60%
- Fair odds
- CLE -131
- KC +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.9 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +5 | KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CLE: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +68 Elo | CLE 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | −0.121st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 30th of 3012–32 | Road vs home | 22–2118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–3 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.