Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Nick PrattoBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Straw singled to center, Giménez scored.1–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6Bo Naylor doubled to right, Brennan scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Giménez scored on error, Brennan safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Lopez.1–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6J. Naylor homered to right (367 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Ramírez homered to left (358 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Giménez homered to right (386 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pratto singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 64%
- Fair odds
- CLE -134
- KC +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +10 | KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +99 Elo | CLE 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | −0.222nd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 30th of 3012–31 | Road vs home | 21–2120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–2 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.