Atlanta Braves at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Travis d'ArnaudBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 0 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Díaz doubled to left, Walls scored and Paredes scored.4–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–10
- 7Harris II singled to right, Rosario scored.4–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–8
- 6Olson doubled to left, Riley scored.3–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–8
- 5Walls hit a ground rule double, Arozarena scored.2–8
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 4Díaz homered to center (422 feet), Bethancourt scored.2–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 4Bethancourt singled to left, Walls scored.2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4d'Arnaud homered to left (400 feet).2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Olson grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Albies scored, Riley out at second.1–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 1Paredes homered to left (392 feet), Aranda scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 50%
- Fair odds
- TB -105
- ATL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +15 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +1 Elo | ATL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–13 | Road vs home | 34–151st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 2–0 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.